Contemporary Geopolitics is making the world order navigate through highly turbulent and vociferous times. Combating a pandemic and the apprehensive rise of Chinese hegemony has caused the already disruptive diplomatic institutions in the world, to engage in a transactional and an aggressive modus operandi. India's international challenges are no different than these; the rising hostilities with the Chinese, Pakistan’s everlasting nuisance, growing strategic gaps in the Indian subcontinent, dynamic changes in the Asian and Global Geopolitics compels us to address the concerns of strategic ambiguity which is supposed to have gripped the policymaking community and the echelons of decision-making authorities both in political and bureaucratic circles. Therefore examining and analyzing the nature and conduct of India’s foreign policy, the structural fault lines and strategic ambiguity that come along with it becomes critical. A clear understanding of India's foreign policy in theory and practice is necessary to make any further prognosis, as it would provide an insight into the whole evolutionary process of our foreign policy. In this regard, the recent developments with S Jaishankar's role as a Foreign Minister in shaping India's foreign policy and in spelling out the strategic objectives become quite critical, as some promises of a paradigm shift in the strategic thinking have been pitched by him. However, the concerns of systemic fault lines, overemphasis and pursuance of Ad-Hoc measures, the lack of a clear doctrinal basis and fragile institutional framework, continues to prevail in the foreign policy decision-making process. To understand the nature and working of India’s foreign policy we need to revisit a very significant speech which was made two years ago, by the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in the 2019 edition of Ramnath Goenka Memorial Lecture, where he gave us an insight of his reading of our foreign policy
He Classified India’s Foreign Policy into six phases;
1) 1947 to 1962; An era of optimistic
Non-Alignment in the rise of the cold war era in the world:
This age witnessed the dawn of India’s independence and the simultaneous rise
of the bi-polar world divided into the socialist camp led by the Soviet Union
and the capitalist camp led by the USA. India chose to be ‘non- aligned’ and
did not enter into the power rivalries of either camp. India aspired to
flower as a nation, with what could be described as the three Ds of nation-building namely Democracy, Development and Diversity.
2)
1962
to 1971: Shift towards realism focusing on national security:
With the 1962 fallout with
China, the Idealist Nehruvian aspiration of peace, mutual bonhomie in foreign
policy ascribed in Panchsheel and non-alignment with great rivalry were almost dissuaded within the policymaking circles
in the South Block of New Delhi. It's Important to note that PM Nehru of
all people signed a security agreement with the USA, and their military mission
was set up in India headed by one of their two-star generals. However, this
alliance was short-lived as India shifted its foreign policy goals favouring
USSR in the later years. In the year 1965, India again had to face challenges
from Pakistan rattling a war, where the western alliance turned hostile to India,
by exerting their pressure to settle the disputes with Pakistan. This situation
more or less compelled India to develop a strategic alliance with the Soviet
Union towards the late 1960s.
3)
1971
to 1991: A complex phase as US-China and Pakistan axis came up.
With the onset of the East
Pakistan genocide, and later with the Liberation War of Bangladesh in which
India played a key role in defeating the Pakistani army, India was clearly at
loggerheads with the western world, especially with the USA because Pakistan
had brokered the onset of a US-China alliance under Nixon-Kissinger
administration. In this era, India was almost in the Soviet Camp with a deeply
netted strategic alliance.
4) 1991 to 1999: Challenge to retain India’s
strategic autonomy in a unipolar world: The collapse of the USSR made India
revisit the first principles of domestic and foreign policy. With a
unipolar world spearheaded by the USA, the world order experienced a paradigm
shift from the cold war era in which India’s foreign policy gained new
dimensions with the look east policy focusing on South East Asia and Gujral
doctrine focusing on India’s neighbourhood. This era witnessed the onset of
economic reforms, breaking India’s chains from the license quota raj followed
by the nuclear test which was aimed at strategic deterrence, and attracted the
American Sanctions.
5)
2000
to 2013: India acquired the attribute of the balancing power:
India recovered swiftly after the fallout with
the USA and entered the millennial age with the aspiration to enter the high
economic growth trajectory with holistic development in the country. This age
came to be known as the Asian age with the rising dominance of China and the
power dynamics that emerged with Russia, Japan and France with India. As India
signed the ambitious civil nuclear deal with the USA, it had to sustain the
challenge of remaining a balancing power in the Asian geopolitics. Overall this
age of Mr Vajpayee-Manmohan Singh brought about a sustained continuity in the
foreign policy and the strategic manoeuvring of the balance of power.
6)
2014
onwards; Phase of energetic engagement in which India is in an early stage of
major transition:
India is moving towards a
state which is systematically increasing its national security consciousness.
India is taking critical domestic political decisions with strategic consequences and geopolitical
repercussions. The article 370 Abrogation in Kashmir and CAA (Citizenship
Amendment Act) have caused some rumblings internationally, but these decisions
have brought on a crisis upon India, as the 1998 nuclear tests did, which
attracted the US sanctions. The reason why no such actions are being initiated
against India is, our global strategic stature as a major regional power has
risen significantly, to put in words of Senior Journalist Shekar Gupta “India
is too strong, too powerful and too important to mess with”. These systemic
changes are indicative of the fact that India is in a stage of transition
towards developing into a major global power.
Classification of India’s Foreign Policy in five baskets based on
S Jaishankar’s analysis:
1)
Greater realism in the contemporary Foreign policy of India.
India’s foreign policy
is taking a realist turn since 2014 when Mr Modi became the Prime Minister.
The approach of the Modi government on national security issues and foreign policy
considerations emanates from a nationalist prism where hard-line decision
making to combat and address the external threats and challenges towards India
is been aggressively followed. Therefore realpolitik has become synonymous with
the foreign policy of India.
2)
Economic drivers will guide diplomacy more than in the past.
Perhaps the foremost
factor that would contribute to the rise of India’s geopolitical stature is the
healthy growth of the Indian Economy. International trade, commerce, indigenous
industrialization and economic alliances with key strategic partners is going
to set a guided trajectory towards achieving India’s longstanding economic
aspirations which in other words is described as Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
3)
Multiple global complexities have to be managed:
The contemporary world
is undergoing a turbulent change where the conventional understanding of
international affairs becoming obscure. Multipolarity of the world order has
created several mini and micropower structures with several countries though
having a limited global impact are starting to impact their regions with a far
stretched strategic relevance. Managing these challenges by facing up to this
complex multipolarity is one of the most crucial considerations for India’s
foreign policy.
4)
This is the phase of calculated risk-taking with an optimistic quantum
jump in the Global positioning:
The contemporary phase
of India’s foreign policy is laced with multiple challenges of managing
extremely sensitive and even hostile relationships. Bilateral and multilateral relations
with India are becoming increasingly transactional by posing glitches even in
strategic alliances. By becoming risk-averse and neutral towards simmering
international issues, India may lose out on entering the elite club of major powers
of the world. Belief and conviction in India’s success story and through the realization of our potential in grappling with complexities of geopolitics can
significantly lead to the upsurge of India’s global positioning.
5)
Need to read the global tea leaves right: i.e. Foreign Policy is
based on many global contradictions:
An assessment of
opportunities and compulsions, risks and rewards make us realize the
contradictions that India has stepped into, in the past and continues to do so
in the present in pursuit of its national interest and drives its foreign
policy towards several global contradictions. Misreading the intent of the
Anglo-American alliance in the dawn of India’s independence and the failure to
decode the extent of Sino-Soviet differences can be sighted as a few examples
of strategic miscalculations. Presently, the appreciation of world politics must
recognize the Sino-US contradictions, growing multipolarity, weaker
multilateralism larger economic and political rebalancing, greater space for
regional powers and the world of convergences, to navigate through the
contradictions laced in the foreign policy.
After gaining an
understanding of the working of India’s foreign policy and its challenges, an
attempt towards formulating a doctrinal basis for foreign policy needs to be
made to create a strong institutional framework that can not only guide
the direction of our foreign policy but also can create a system of checks and
balances by making a continuous comprehensive assessment of the working of
India’s foreign policy.
CONCEPTUALIZING A BASIC
STRUCTURE FOR INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY.
The Indian constitution has a basic structure doctrine defined by
the supreme court, and in this basic structure, the cardinal principles which
cannot be undermined at any cost are clearly mentioned (such as democracy,
federalism, independence of Judiciary, so on and so forth) and this process is
continuously being carried out by the supreme court, whenever disputes arising
constitutional law emerge. Similarly, the foreign policy of India is also in
need of a basic structure doctrine, which is non-partisan, de-hyphenated, and
would a clear institutional framework in formulating a coherent foreign policy
for India. However the dilemma in making strategic choices amidst and with, the
powerful Nation-States, and orchestrating the paradox of decision making in
foreign affairs often turns out to be a convoluted riddle, and a wrong choice
or a slight miscalculation can lead us into antipathetic repercussions. Keeping all these factors and challenges in
mind, I am suggesting a few components that can form the pillars of India’s
basic structure of the foreign policy.
1.
Reviving
the Hindu theory of International relations;
This theory was
propounded by an eminent Social Scientist Benoy Kumar Sarkar. B K Sarkar’s
razor-sharp intellectual brilliance and outstanding academic rigour enabled him
to vigorously engage with the western notions of international affairs and
through his global intellectual encounters, his travels fostered he offered an
‘epistemic’ challenge to the western knowledge of International affairs. His
Hindu theory of IR consisted of the teachings of Kautilya and Shukracharya’s
nitisara that rearticulates the doctrine of Mandala, which he described as
underlying the “Hindu idea of the balance of power”. The interpretation of Vedic
texts in terms of the canon of the western international thought came to be
known in his description as “ Sarva-Bhauma” the world sovereign, a Hindu
variant of Kant’s notions of permanent peace and multilateral organizations, that
would deal with the power dynamics of world politics.
2.
Chanakya’s
Doctrine of Mandala
This doctrine
provides for a brilliant analysis of diplomacy and foreign affairs from an
Indic perspective. Sama (Negotiation) Dharma (Persuasion ) and Bedha ( Conciliation) are considered to be the three perennial
attributes of Diplomacy, based on which a mandala would be formed. A mandala
would consist of four circles;
v First:
The King(Swamin), King’s Friend (Mitra), Friend’s friend ( Mitrasya Mitra )
v Second:
Enemy (Ari), Enemy’s Friend (Ari Mitra ), Enemy’s friend’s friend ( Ari Mitra
Mitra), Enemy’s Enemy (Ari Ari)
v Third:
Neutral ( Tatasta)
v Four:
Mutual Friend ( Madhyama )
Chanaka’s works such as Neetishastra
and Arthashastra must have a prominent place in the basic structure of India’s
foreign policy that becomes a guide of strategic literature for the decision-makers of foreign policy.
3.
National
Foreign Policy Framework (NFPF):
This Framework would consist of the aims,
objectives, vision and mission of the Indian Government along with a statement
of its policy choices. It would consist of several rules and regulations to
govern the working of India’s adherence to International law and treaty
obligations and to ensure a disciplined functioning of our external affairs.
It would act as a permanent charter of foreign policy, allowing the successive
governments to bring about necessary amendments, strengthening and
expanding the basic structure of India’s foreign policy.
4.
Foreign
Policy Review Committee(FPRC): This advisory committee should
be based on the working of the finance commission or a law commission, which
must be periodically set up for every five years to review the working of India’s
foreign policy and must provide its suggestions to revamp and reform the shortcomings
of foreign policy decision making and provide advice based on its expertise to
the government on the future course of action on the foreign policy. This committee
must consist of senior career diplomats, public intellectuals and members of
the academia specialized in international affairs and area studies, senior
politicians both from the ruling dispensation and the opposition. Senior
journalists, legal luminaries, eminent activists, corporate professionals,
economists and other prominent citizens who have shown a keen interest in world
affairs must be given advisory roles. The government can either choose the executive or statutory route to set up this committee, and this must become an established
convention in the larger framework of India’s public policy.
5.
Institutionalizing
Defence Diplomacy:
As India’s
external threats are increasing, the need to ramp up the defence assets,
weapons and armoury become the need of the hour. In fact, the late Gen Bipin
Rawat, India’s first CDS( Chief of Defence Staff ) had spoken on several occasions
on the need envision for a specialized defence diplomatic core, which would
possess exemplary professional competence in understanding defence and
strategic issues, along with striking effective negotiations in the complex
defence deals with India’s major defence partners in the world. In my view
certainly, a kick-start can be made in this direction with the appointment of a
Diplomatic Advisory Council, headed by a senior diplomat who has worked extensively
in senior roles, in the major defence and strategic allies of India. Other
members may consist of India’s topmost strategic scholars and intellectuals,
former diplomats and senior staffers of the National Security Council, senior journalists
specialized in defence and strategic affairs etc. This measure would lay the foundations for the institutionalization of defence diplomacy.
6.
Integration
of Academia, intelligentsia and the network of professionals
To create this integration, the
government must take up an Initiative to set up a think tank dedicated
exclusively to foreign affairs, based on the NITI Aayog model, under the aegis
of the Ministry of External Affairs. This think tank must be given the mandate of
conducting extensive and high-quality primary research on every important
country, continent and geostrategic location, international organization, geopolitical
issue, geo-economic issue, geo-socio-cultural aspects and relations so on and
so forth. This think tank must be a bridge between NFPF and FPRC to aid and assist
the process of foreign policymaking in India.
7.
Adopting the cohesive diplomacy strategy of Prof ML Sondhi
Prof Manohar Lal Sondhi was amongst the greatest of international
relations and foreign policy scholars India had. He served in the Foreign
Service for a short stint and joined as a faculty in the JNU School of
International Studies. It is worth
remembering and underlining how ahead of this times Prof Sondhi was in
articulating India’s aspirations and identifying ways and means to achieve
them. His writings on Indian foreign policy underline several key themes in
India’s external relations, ranging from the role of non-alignment to the
changing balance of power in the Indo-pacific. In one of his last writings
titled “Coercive Diplomacy: beyond deterrence,” he mentions “Controlled military
escalation is sometimes necessary to induce external attention to one’s own
interests, that there is no such thing as deft diplomacy”. In his view, India should discard the
policies of a “landlocked country” promoted by Nehru as well as his fixations
with Pakistan and China, and Nuclear disarmament to create a new nation,
confident and prepared for the twenty-first century.
Institutionalization of
trade diplomacy:
We are witnessing the bitter
trade war between US and China span out in such a manner that, it is having
huge impacts on global financial conditions and worldwide inflationary effect. India
must play a major role in Geo-Economics in future as we have also become a major
player in world trade. Trade diplomacy must evolve as a strong Institution to
cater to the erupting challenges and massive Expansion of India’s trade
network. The existing Indian Trade Service (ITS) must be expanded in cadre
strength, by introducing a newly structured and
highly specialized training
programme in Trade Diplomacy and International
Political Economics, by
giving greater roles of trade negotiations, examining
and reviewing trade
treaties, agreements and MoUs in detail and depth. Their
(ITS), presence in
Embassies, High Commissions, International Financial Organizations, Summits, and
conferences must be exponentially increased. The presence of specialized trade
diplomats during bilateral and multilateral visits of PMs and Foreign Ministers
and other cabinet ministers, wherever deemed necessary, must be mandated by a protocol.
Along with these structural changes, it’s necessary to have an Autonomous Trade
Review Body (Advisory Body) and Informatics centre (that would gather necessary
data related ), which would work jointly under the Ministry of Commerce and
External Affairs Ministry, consisting of domain experts and officers of IFS and
ITS. By developing a separate and concrete Institution for trade diplomacy,
India would get an upper hand in the negotiations of trade agreements and also
in
Ratification and implementation
of the agreements, deals and treaties in a successful manner.
Revamping and reforming the Foreign Service:
The glamour and glory of
Indian diplomacy have gradually faded in the past two to three decades. The majority of the candidates who take up the prestigious civil service exam in India are
not opting for the IFS (Indian Foreign Service)- the career diplomacy core of
the Indian Government. Instead the IAS( Indian Administrative Service), Indian
Police Service) and the IRS IT ( Indian Revenue Service, Income Tax) have
become the most sort after service for more than 95% of the selected
candidates. The reason for the decline of the Foreign Service seems to be the liberalization
of the Indian Economy and with it, the attraction of overseas stays and travel have
found other avenues, as the economy has opened up and provides a wide range of opportunities
to people who aspire to travel and work abroad, and the passion for foreign
services with this aspiration has been lost, almost turning IFS as irrelevant.
Moving on to the assessment of
the institutional shortcomings, the size of India’s diplomatic corps is tiny
compared to its global ambitions; there are only 2700 staff members and 912 Foreign
Service officers. Countries like China with (4,500), Japan (5,700), France
(6,000) and the US (20,000) officials and staff have surged ahead of India in
an outstanding manner. Moreover, the “annual intake of the IFS (Indian Foreign
Service) tops off at 35 officers tells its own sad story” says strategic
analyst Bharat Karnad. Not only should India scale up its diplomatic strength, but the selection process must also be revamped through the introduction of a separate
exam. An assessment of the candidates must be made on parameters such as
international aptitude, curiosity about the world, knowledge or demonstrated
interest in foreign affairs, communication skills as recommended in the report
by the parliamentary standing committee on External Affairs chaired by the
Congress MP Shashi Tharoor. The report also asked for mid-career entry of diplomats
where even Ambassador level also could be made from outside the IFS cadre,
selecting eminent persons from domains like community affairs, Diaspora issues,
foreign policy, area studies, literature, journalism and so on. By taking these
measures India’s diplomatic core would develop into a highly specialist force,
competent and capable enough to take on the challenges of contemporary
international affairs.
India’s foreign policy
restructuring is a highly complex yet necessary process that needs to be
carried out. India is one of the world’s leading democratic nations with
extensive global aspirations and immense potential, has to undergo laborious
processes of reform cycles in several sectors, especially in its foreign policy
if it needs to fulfil its global aspirations and milestones.
References:
1) Transcript
of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s speech at the 4th
Ramnath Goenka Lecture, November 14, 2019.
2) The
forgotten history of Indian International Relations by Martin J.Bayly; ORF
Issue Brief, November 2017 Issue NO. 210.
3) B.
K. Sarkar, “ Hindu Theory of International Relations”, American Political
Science Review 13, no.3 ( 1919): 400-14.
4) Choices
‘ Inside the making of India’s foreign policy’ Shivshankar Menon; Penguin Allen
Page 2016; ISBN 9780670089239
5) Pax
Indica, India and the world of the 21st century; Shashi Tharoor;
Penguin Random House India 2012; ISBN 9780143420187
6) India’s
Foreign policy and National Security Strategy; VIF perspective; Editor C D
Sahay
Vitasta Publishing Pvt Ltd. New
Delhi 2019. ISBN 9789386473394.
7) India’s
Foreign Policy; selected writings Prof Manohar Lal Sondhi; Editor Harsh V. Pant
Har-Anand Publications Pvt Ltd New Dehli
2017: ISBN 9788124119792
8) A
New Idea of India; ‘ Individual rights in a Civilizational State’; Harsh
Madhusudan and Rajeev Mantri; Westland Publications Pvt Ltd 2020; ISBN
9789389648409.
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